Trends

Over the past three years we experienced changing markets. By that I mean the dynamic between buyers and sellers that sets stage for negotiation and results in transactions. 
 
At the beginning of 2021 - as we slowly awakened from the ether of pandemic lockdowns, two trends emerged - rampant on-line shopping and hybrid work forces. Both of these affected commercial real estate and the three asset classes - office, industrial and retail - in different ways. Owners of industrial spaces - especially those equipped to welcome logistics providers - saw a rabid increase in demand. Fulfilling on-line orders quickly and efficiently required more on hand inventory - read. A place to receive, stage, store, and distribute said goods. 
 
Conversely, as our shopping experiences turned from visiting our local retailer in person to surfing the web - foot traffic to brick and mortar stores lessened and spaces became ghost towns. On the office front, tenants choreographed a thoughtful dance of safety of work forces vs in-office appearances. We realized we could ply our trades from most anywhere - our home, from the front seat of our cars, or abroad - and many did. Therefore, office and retail tilted toward tenants and industrial spaces were heavily slanted in owner’s directions. 
 
As we dawn 2024, the aggressive pursuit of available inventory by industrial tenants has ebbed, investor activity has been reduced to a trickle, and we’re seeing signs of lease rate softening. 
 
In light of changing markets, how should you - as an occupant of industrial space - tender your offers? That, dear readers, is the focus of the balance of this column. 
 
Know the trends. At the beginning of 2023 we counseled  our industrial occupants to watch lease rates. Our prediction was significant softening would occur by the end of the year - and therefore, to transact at the beginning of the year might result in a rate higher than anticipated. Our gamble proved prescient as we experienced a declination of rates - in some cases by 25%. 
 
Know the metrics. A simple review of how many available properties within a certain size range exist versus how many similar properties have leased or sold, is a good way to measure the velocity of a market. As an example, if during the past year three buildings between 25 and 35,000 ft.² have leased or sold, and presently there are 15 available, one could surmise that five years of supply exist. This, of course, assumes everything stays the same, pricing is not reduced in order to spur demand, or something outside our economy causes the need for space to increase - i.e. a pandemic.
 
Understand the owner’s situation. If an owner is currently carrying a vacant building, it’s important to gauge how willing she will be to accept a deal. For someone who purchased the building at the peak of the market with the appurtenant increase in operating expenses, and potentially debt service, her willingness to strike at a number less than her carrying costs might be difficult. By the same token, if an ownership has existed for many years with low operating expenses, and little to no debt - any deal might look appealing. 
 
Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 

Institutional vs Private

One of my predictions headed into 2024 is that we’ll see an uptick of buying activity - especially from institutional purchasers. Why you may be wondering? For three reasons. Number one. Most haven’t transacted since the middle of 2022 and must to balance allocations. Number two. We should get clarity this year about one of the metrics that determine commercial real estate value - rental rates. Number three. A declining interest rate environment which will make Treasuries less compelling and real estate more so. 
 
Allow me to add color to these three reflections. But first a quick review of my definition of an institutional investor. If you’re a teacher, firefighter, police officer, or work at city hall you can relate to a potion of your paycheck that’s deducted to fund your retirement. Prior to the predominance of 401ks, Private employers also provided pensions and took a slice of your salary to do so. If you pay into a whole or universal life insurance policy - those premiums must be invested as well. All of the above form pools of capital that need returns and are used to buy stocks, bonds, money market funds and commercial real estate. Each asset class has its own percentage the fund managers dictate. Advisors - at the direction of fund managers - use these funds to make buys. Thus an institutional investor. 
 
Now to that promised detail. 
 
Pencils down. When we began 2022, institutional interest in commercial real estate was rabid - especially if you owned and operated a company from your building - you had many buyers knocking on your door. The play two years ago was to purchase the real estate and provide the occupying company a lease-back of preferably two years in duration. Demand during this period of time drove values to unseen levels. In some cases doubling the amount buyers were willing to pay by double. The theory was by 2024, rental rates would far eclipse the lease back amount -therefore, providing a greater return on the investment. However, when the Federal Reserve started to hike interest rates in the middle of 2022 - coupled with global uncertainty - we saw a shift in Investor attitudes. The term, “pencils down“ permeated the industry. For the entirety of 2023 this outlook continued and institutional investor activity was reduced to a trickle. 
 
Where are rents. One of the fundamental metrics in the world of commercial real estate is rental rates. Think of it as the heartbeat of the industry. The coming year holds the promise of clarity in this crucial metric. As I’ve written in the space, rents in class-A industrial in North Orange County seem to have found a level that has spurred demand. So why is this so important? Imagine you're considering buying a commercial property. You need to know how much rent you can expect to charge tenants. If this number is vague or uncertain, it's akin to navigating in the dark. But when you have a clear picture of expected rental rates, it's like having a bright guiding light. Clear rental rate data allows investors to make informed decisions. They can assess whether a property is undervalued or overpriced, which ultimately impacts the return on investment. It's the linchpin that can make or break a deal.
 
Rates. Now, let's talk about something that affects every investor's decision-making process - interest rates. In 2024, we're looking at a landscape of declining interest rates. But why should that matter for real estate? Picture this. You have some money to invest, and you're considering your options. On one side, you have Treasury bonds, historically considered a safe bet. On the other side, you have commercial real estate. Traditionally, when interest rates on Treasuries are high, they're a compelling choice because they offer a relatively safe and stable return. However, when interest rates start to drop, as they're doing now, the risk ratio changes. Suddenly, the returns on Treasury bonds become less appealing, while the potential returns from real estate start to become more compelling. Investors look for opportunities that offer higher returns, and that often leads them to the commercial real estate market. In a world where real estate can provide solid returns in a low-interest environment, the appeal of this asset class becomes evident. It's a shift that institutional investors can't afford to ignore.
 
So to sum it up. 2024 holds the promise of an exciting year for commercial real estate. Institutional investors, with their careful balancing of allocations, eagerly await clarity on rental rates as they navigate the changing interest rate landscape. These factors, when combined, create a compelling case for increased buying activity. 
 
Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 

What A Wedding Can Teach Us About Commercial Real Estate

For those three of you - thanks Rudy - that missed my column last week, I was on brief hiatus as lwe were celebrating the union of two souls. Our son Michael and his new wife Candice said I do to a bevy of friends, loved ones and a beautiful backdrop of Mother Nature. You see, the ceremony was officiated well off the Ortega Highway at a venue called Jewel of the Ortega. A bit of a haul to get there - but oh - quite worth it. The day dawned sunny, clear blue, and warm - ideal for the exchange of vows. So many years of happiness together is my wish for the couple.

What follows seemed quite fitting for the lessons learned from the event.

Selling a commercial real estate asset is akin to planning a wedding - sure, you can do it yourself but things go much more smoothly if you have a wedding planner - AKA a commercial real estate professional.

Certainly, you can do a quick Loopnet search, establish a price, purchase a For Sale sign at Home Depot and wait for the phone to ring - set the date, book the venue, buy some suits and order the cake - this is easy!

Vista Print will create a glossy brochure of your building, mail a few to the neighbors and the inquiries will start to flow - Wow! They do wedding invitations too? Cool! Invite aunt Marjorie and a few dozen friends and let’s do this!

Just got your first hit! They want to see the building next week. Oh wait, you’ve a day job and can only meet the buyers on weekends or evenings. Hmmm, this doesn’t work for the buyers- now what? I guess you could slip out during lunch - but what if the buyer is late or stiffs you? Time wasted - and on an empty stomach.

OK, you get them through. They like it. An offer will be forthcoming. I’ll bet you’re glad you’re saving that 6% you’d have paid the broker. Why don’t more folks do this themselves?

Your prospective buyers call. Do you have a recent appraisal? Does the roof leak? When will the tenant vacate? What will be left when the occupant leaves? I noticed the building doesn’t have central air. Do the cracks in the floor portend something serious? Would you consider seller financing as we have a small credit blip - a bankruptcy? Oh, by the way, my wife has her agent’s license - so we will be deducting 3% from our offer. Next!

Three different agents - who comb the area - call. We have qualified prospects who would like to see your building. Will you pay us a fee if we bring you a buyer? Can you forward to us any marketing collateral you have? Any idea how much electricity feeds the property? - as one of our buyers is a machine shop. One of our guys stacks products high in the warehouse. Will the sprinkler system handle high-piled storage? What is the zoning? Our buyer is a trade school. Will the city allow that occupancy without a conditional use permit? Hmmm. Feeling a bit overwhelmed?

Finally, your perfect buyer appears - dressed as Prince Charming. Let the wedding bells ring! After all, a commercial real estate deal is a union of sorts. You gloat a bit as your email buzzes with a full asking price offer. No financing required, quick close, as-is - alright! Done. But, not so fast. You see, this buyer has made three full price offers to three separate owners. His plan is to tie up all three - and jettison two of the three. Will you be saying I do? Or, I wish I had - hired that broker.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
 

Does the demise of Silicon Valley Bank portend bad news for commercial real estate.

As we dawned 2022, yield on ten year treasuries was 1.73%. Also referred to as T-bills - the rate today is 3.4%. Last week the rate eclipsed 4% for the first time since last October. But prior to that, rates had stubbornly refused to budge north of 4%. During the Federal Reserve’s loosening in the pandemic - rates on ten year treasuries were below single digits. That’s right! In mid 2020, if you agreed to tie up your money for ten years - until maturity - you’d receive a paltry .52%. Let’s say you were quite cautious, risk averse, but wanted some return on your cash and bought a pile of these government issues. If you planned to redeem the bonds in 2030 - no problem. The return would be there, along with your principal amount. Let’s say for example you parked $100,000 in this manner. You could expect your investment to yield $520 per year for its duration. But. What would happen if you needed the principal before the maturity date of 2030? You could sell the bonds on the market. But at a steep discount. How much, you may be wondering? Using the yield of 3.4% today, your principal would be worth $15,294! That’s a hit of close to 85%. This very over simplified example is partially what caused Silicon Valley Bank to fail and be seized by federal regulators. When the run on deposits occurred last week - the bank was forced to take a loss on its bond portfolio in order to cash out investors. Bonds move inversely. As the price of a bond increases its yield decreases and vice versa. Capitalization rates on real estate behave in a similar fashion. As cap rates increase - the value of the underlying property decreases.
 
So. To the question above - what impact a bank failure might have on commercial real estate - here goes.
 
The Federal Reserve may not raise rates as aggressively as it planned. When the federal reserve started its march toward a federal funds rate target of 6% - in an effort to lower inflation to 2% - a series of .75% rate hikes ensued. These .75% rate increases morphed into .25% rate increases early this year as inflation showed signs of easing. We’ve now experienced a couple of months of strong jobs numbers paired with increased wages and a resilient consumer who refuses to stop spending. Before the bank shenanigans of last week, many believed a .5% increase was in the works for the March Federal Reserve meeting. However, because of the rapid increase in the Fed Funds rate - remember we’ve gone from a half a percent to 4.5% in less than a year - some believe we could avoid an increase altogether.
 
Borrowing costs may increase. If depositors believe certain banks are riskier than others, they’ll demand a greater return on their money for the added risk. Read. Higher depository costs. If failures cause a revamp of banking regulations - similar to what we experienced in 2008 - reserve requirements might increase. The impact of these two mean fewer, more expensive dollars to lend.
 
Investor activity may slow. We saw a dramatic decline in institutional investor activity in the second half of 2022. Left were private capital investors. Historically, this investor genre will pay less than institutions. Primarily because they borrow money to affect the buy. A classic disconnect is now occurring between buyers and sellers. Unless there is distress on behalf of a seller and/or tax motivation on behalf of buyers the dance ends before the band tunes up. I don’t see this ending soon.
 
Cap rates may be higher. Expect higher cap rates because of all of the above. Keep in mind. A year ago 3.75%-4.25% cap rates were the norm. Traditionally reserved for the bondable absolute net investments - such as Amazon on a ten year lease with 4% annual rent hikes - capital, seeking return, was pouring in to anything with a truck door. Many eschewed long term leases in favor of shorter terms where a rent pop could be sooner realized. Now. The government will pay you 4.2% for a two year treasury backed by the full faith an credit of the United States. Sure. You don’t get the appreciation or depreciation of a real property investment but the risk is minimal. 
 
Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 

Advice We’re Giving These Days

It’s been said March comes roaring in like a lion and leaves like a lamb. Metaphorical for the weather patterns experienced - this can be said for our commercial real estate market this year.
 
Shaking off the cobwebs of a post pandemic hangover, 2022 started with great momentum - only to be cooled mid year. We received some decent economic news of late with the consumer price index not increasing as fast and some major retailers posting better earnings than expected - but our path forward still remains murky.
 
So what advice are we giving to tenants, investors and occupants who own? Allow me to categorize each.
 
Tenants. We recently recommended a client of ours renew for a short period of time - six months - to gauge the market trajectory. Our tenant is faced with a lease expiration at the end of this year and we’ve been watching what’s become available for several months. His options to relocate were limited and we’d even created a plan B to stay put if we didn’t see some loosening. Low and behold - we noticed a trickle of new buildings hitting the market in October. Now it’s running about three per week. If you’re looking for space - this is a vast improvement versus six months ago when we were lucky to see one every three weeks. Another interesting metric is the asking rates have declined. Gone are the days when a new avail was swept up before it was widely marketed. Every new deal was a new high. Not anymore. Our advice centers around our belief of future softening. Tenants are becoming valuable again - especially if they pay on time and are easy on the building - which our clients is. What’s causing the increase in supply? Some businesses, faced with the new rent structure are headed out of state or out of business. What’s left in their wake are vacancies.
 
Investors. We see two sets of motivation these days - tax deferral and non. Unless motivated by tax reasons - it may be wise to put your money in short term treasuries - two years - and wait for the right opportunity to come along. Institutional capital is largely sidelined and occupants are priced out. Private investors rule. If belief suggests a softening of rents in the face of rising interest rates - values can only decline. Will there be better deals mid 2023 than today? Our opinion is yes. Certainly, if your investment is dictated by tax deferred timeframes - you either transact or pay the gains taxes. But remember, the impetus of those buys was a sale. Our sense is they’ll be fewer equity sales as values have declined or the market’s evaporated - leading to fewer tax fueled purchases.
 
Occupants who own. We saw a voracious appetite from institutional capital targeting these arrangements. Their pitch was a sky high purchase price in return for a leaseback of two-ten years. This activity peaked in June. With the uncertainty of recession, inflation, and rising rates - these deals weren’t as attractive. With more lease deal hitting the multiples - our prediction is some of these owners will need to sell - especially if faced with a refinance bullet or a shortage of dollars necessary to refurbish the building into rent ready condition. Once again. Patience is key.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104.
 

An Investor Briefing

I consume a ton of economic news each day, week, and month. Maybe it’s my degree. After all, I do have a Bachelor of Arts in economics. It could be I’m smitten with numbers. Or possibly, I believe having knowledge of the broader economy - not just what’s happening locally makes me a better resource to my clients and prospects.
 
Recently, I delivered a briefing to my investors which I believed was column worthy.
 
Macro economy. If you watch CNBC, attend conferences, read this publication or the Wall Street Journal - you know the Federal Reserve is on a tear to tame inflation. Their only hammer to tamp down the nail is to systematically raise the rates banks pay to borrow. For years this rate was next to nothing but now hovers around 3.5%. Plans are for this rate to eclipse 5% by year’s end. The hope is that by doing this the supply of money will be choked - causing it to be more expensive. How does this trickle down to the pump and the grocery checkout line? With less money circulating, the theory is competition for purchasing will also lessen thereby causing downward pressure on pricing. In short, this takes time. Consumer interest rates have also risen. A mere year ago, you could originate a thirty year mortgage of around 3%. Now it’s over 7%. Still historically cheap money but not compared to last year. And finally, we have an economy poised for recession - some believe we’re already there.
 
Commercial real estate asset classes. Folks continue to buy and consumer confidence is bustling. Certainly the way in which dollars are expended was forever changed by the pandemic. Savvy retailers who provide an experience are thriving. Those who simply sell things are struggling. Thus the state of retail.
 
If our economy should truly recess in 2023 - a return to the office might be the unintended consequence. Getting more from fewer and having them close could stem from a downturn. Expect headcount to reduce in 2023. Look at big tech such as Twitter, Meta, Alphabet, and Apple - preemptively planning for a reduction by mass layoffs.
 
The drivers of the huge uptick in industrial demand are cooling. Because we’re back to work and not strumming our keyboards means less on hand inventory is needed. The big retailers have commenced the purge. Third party logistics providers - especially that cater to folks who sell things - need less space.
 
All asset classes are experiencing a rise in capitalization rates - the percentage that defines your return on an all cash basis. The question is - what’s causing the bump? Some opine as the cost of borrowing increases - cap rates must climb lest there be negative leverage. You’ll find a school of thought believing it’s all about fear and greed. As interest rates rise, uncertainty is created which causes some investors to tap out - fear. With the buyer universe smaller - less competition - pricing must be reduced to generate activity - greed. I believe it’s a combination of both. We’ll see less equity selling in 2023.
 
Commercial real estate micro trends. Manufacturing and logistics buildings are still in extremely short supply. 99 of every hundred buildings is occupied. Rents for class-A industrial are now over $2.00 per square foot. For context - those rents were only $1.00 in 2021. In Orange County, many exhausted manufacturing campuses have been retired. Once bustling operations such as Kimberly Clark, Beckman, Schneider Foods, Kraft Heinz, Boeing, and National Oilwell Varco have been replaced with monster boxes to fill the pressing need for the new purchasing paradigm. Repurposing aging research and development campuses has found favor with many developers. Examples include Ricoh, Bank of America, OC Register, and locations along Imperial Highway in Brea.
 
What are tenants thinking. Companies that occupy buildings and pay rent are bracing for impact. As mentioned before, class-A industrial rents hovered around $1.00 per square foot only a year ago. They’ve since doubled. Operations whose lease payments comprise a small percentage of their overall cost structure are taking the increases in stride. But, closely held businesses are realizing increased rent will reduce their margins and may not allow for hiring, equipment purchasing, or acquiring a competitor.
 
Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 

Should you make a Long Term Commitment in These Times?

I once authored a column entitled “Worst mistakes occupants make”. Among these are - buying when you should lease, leasing when you should buy, signing a short term lease in a downward trending market, or signing a long term lease in a peak market.
 
To review.
 
Buying. A new, rapidly growing business generally finds a better fit leasing for a term than investing precious operating capital into a static purchase of real estate. Conversely, if the company has been around awhile, is privately owned, has generated a profit for the last two years, has an ownership structure that can benefit from depreciation, and can afford the down payment and debt service - enormous generational wealth can be created by owning the facility from which your enterprise operates.
 
Leasing. When an economic outlook is fuzzy - most operations hedge by making short term lease deals. In fact, much can be gained doing the opposite - think contrarian. While the world zigs - you should zag. But, I have seen companies goof by signing term leases when things are frothy only to see the monthly amount they pay be dramatically greater than current rates - and they’re locked.
 
Most would agree we are in a changing market with respect to industrial real estate. Those occupying retail and office spaces are way ahead of us as their markets morphed years and months ago. With retail it was pre-pandemic and office as a result of the pandemic. But, now here we are with an uncertain future for manufacturing and logistics spaces.
 
So, if you lease an industrial building and you are approaching a renewal - what strategy should you employ? Assuming the space still works for you - location, size, and amenities - feel out your owner. How does she view the current conditions. Is she bullish, bearish, or running for the exits? If she falls into category two or three - she’s probably willing to forego a risky vacancy in favor of constant cash flow. Read - make you a deal! Another idea is the “blend and extend”. We saw a ton of these used in the early 2010’s and they exchange a lesser rate today in exchange for additional years added to the lease term. Both are effective. Just know your owner, know your alternatives, understand your cost to relocate, and finally - be familiar with the cost to replace your tenancy.
 
Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.

How will we Know When the Market Changes?

Much has been written lately about economic storm clouds massing on the horizon. If you doubt what I say, pick up any periodical, listen to talk radio or a network news broadcast and mentions of inflation, interest rate hikes, and the Fed’s remedies will abound. Akin to a desert monsoon that starts with a puff of clouds and morphs into something larger - everyone senses the deluge is coming but are uncertain how extreme the soaking will be. Full disclosure. Neither do I. 

 
Certainly, my years of experience and witness of several downturns can add credence. But, the reality is all are different in their causes. Take 1990-1994 as an example. Loose lending by savings and loans and their ultimate demise, over building, and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait catalyzed the boom years of the late eighties to a screeching halt. 
 
How about 2008-2011? Easy money to unqualified home buyers coupled with another spate of massive construction starts was ill prepared for a pause in the music. Many were left without a chair as the financial markets froze and lending ceased. 
 
Today, the culprits are the pandemic which left us home bound and computer key happy, stimulus checks, and supply chain clogs. The classic case of too many dollars and too few goods took effect causing consumer prices to spike. Not since the Carter years have we seen inflation this high. 
 
Caught in the crossfire is real estate - commercial and housing. Housing has started to slow as buying power is directly impacted by pricier loans. Even though inventory of homes for sale is low - offerings are sitting around longer and the frenzied pace of January 2022 is a distant memory. 
 
So when will we know the commercial market is slowing? The following will provide some guidance. 
 
As I’ve mentioned, commercial real estate trends follow residential by 12 to 18 months. But we’ll sense a slowdown soon - if it’s coming. 
 
First, listings will languish. What flew off the shelves earlier in the year will take longer to lease or sell. Recall, our vacancy is at historic lows. So, this won’t happen next week. But, maybe an offering that generated multiple offers will settle for one or two. 
 
Next, owner motivation will shift. The longer a vacant building lays fallow, the more desire an owner will have to fill it. 
 
Pricing will stabilize and then decline. With occupants on the sideline, owners will be forced to deal. One way to do so is through a reduction in asking prices. 
 
As rents adjust, so will values. Recall, the price an investor will pay is a return on the lease check a tenant writes each month. A decline in this amount coupled with an upward move in capitalization rates causes the price per square foot to decrease.  

Believe me, I’m watching all of the above quite carefully. Just today - while guiding a tour - the conversation centered around “where are we going” as it pertained to our owner’s situation. Yep. An entirely different rhetoric was rampant a mere three months ago. 

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.