Friday, May 23, 2025

Can We Bring Manufacturing Back to California? Here’s What It Would Take


Once upon a time, California was the beating heart of American manufacturing. From aerospace in El Segundo to semiconductors in Silicon Valley, the Golden State built things—big, bold, world-changing things. But over the past three decades, factories have shuttered, jobs have moved overseas, and California has become better known for exporting ideas than importing machinery.
 
Now, the tides are shifting.
 
COVID-19 exposed the fragility of global supply chains. Container ships stacked outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach reminded us just how far we’ve outsourced our productive capacity. Talk of “reshoring”—bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.—became more than just political rhetoric. For a moment, it felt like American industry was ready to make a comeback.
 
And yet, here in California, that comeback has been more sizzle than steak.
 
So what’s standing in the way?
 
Let’s start with the obvious: cost. Industrial land in California is among the most expensive in the country. In Southern California, you’re lucky to find dirt under $50 per square foot—and in many infill areas, it’s well north of that. Add in construction costs, utilities, taxes, and the dreaded “soft costs” of entitlement and permitting, and your manufacturing project might collapse before you ever pour a slab.
 
But cost is only part of the equation.
 
Manufacturers also face a regulatory labyrinth. CEQA, AQMD, CARB—if you know those acronyms, you probably also know how difficult it is to get an industrial use permitted in this state. Even clean, tech-enabled operations must navigate lengthy environmental reviews that can stretch on for years.
 
And then there’s labor. California offers a deep talent pool—but it comes at a price. Employers must contend with one of the most complex labor codes in the nation, high workers’ comp premiums, and rising minimum wages. For many, it’s easier to head to Nevada, Arizona, or Texas, where the cost of doing business is lower and the red tape is less suffocating.
 
So, if we truly want to bring manufacturing back—not just to America, but to California—we have to get serious. That means addressing five key areas:
 
1. Regulatory Reform
Streamline environmental review for industrial projects, especially those involving clean or advanced manufacturing. Fast-track permits for uses that reduce emissions and create living-wage jobs.
 
2. Strategic Incentives
Offer tax credits, relocation grants, and training subsidies that reward companies for building here. Compete with other states—not on ideology, but on economic viability.
 
3. Energy Reliability
Manufacturing requires power—lots of it. California must ensure its grid can handle industrial demand without rolling blackouts or punishing peak rates.
 
4. Industrial Land Preservation
Zoning is destiny. Too often, cities rezone industrial land for higher-tax retail or residential uses. If we want jobs, we need to protect the land where jobs happen.
 
5. Workforce Development
Invest in vocational education, community college partnerships, and apprenticeships. We must rebuild the talent pipeline that once made California a manufacturing powerhouse.
 
We do have some bright spots. Tesla, against all odds, continues to operate in Fremont. In the Inland Empire, logistics has exploded—proving that goods still move through California even if they aren’t made here. But let’s be clear: we’ve missed major opportunities. Semiconductor plants are being built in Arizona, not Anaheim. Battery gigafactories are opening in Nevada, not Norwalk.
 
Manufacturing won’t return on sentiment alone. It will take political courage, private investment, and a willingness to rethink how California supports its industrial base. We’ve done it before. We can do it again.
 
The question is: do we really want to?

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
 

Friday, May 16, 2025

What Drives Demand? The Forces Powering Today’s Commercial Real Estate Market


A funny thing about commercial real estate: while the buildings themselves are fixed in place, the forces that create demand for those buildings are anything but. They shift with time, trend, and turmoil—and if you’re not paying attention, you might miss the cues that tell you when and where activity will ignite.
Take lease expirations, for example. It’s one of the most fundamental drivers of deal flow in our business. When a lease winds down, a decision must be made—renew, relocate, or remain on a month-to-month basis. That single moment often becomes the catalyst for months of planning, broker engagement, site tours, financial modeling, and ultimately, action. No expiration? No pressure. And no pressure means no urgency—one of the key ingredients in getting deals done.

But leases alone don’t tell the whole story.

As we turned the corner into 2025, the tail end of 2024 gave us a master class in commercial real estate hesitation. Activity slowed not because companies lacked need, but because they lacked certainty. Three macro forces kept tenants and investors glued to the sidelines:

1. Presidential politics. Decision-makers wanted to know what kind of business climate they’d be operating in before signing on to long-term commitments. Red or blue, regulation or deregulation, tax incentives or new compliance rules—these all influence corporate planning and therefore real estate strategy.

2. Interest rate direction. The Fed kept everyone guessing. Would rates go up again? Plateau? Begin to fall? Capital markets hate ambiguity, and so do CFOs staring at lease vs. own models.

3. Consumer confidence. As goes the consumer, so goes much of our economy. Businesses took a hard look at spending patterns, savings rates, and employment numbers before deciding whether now was the right time to expand.

Add to that a steady churn of mergers, acquisitions, and dispositions, and you’ve got another strong source of demand—though not always in the ways you might expect. M&A can consolidate two footprints into one, freeing up space in one market while triggering new need in another. Dispositions, meanwhile, open up inventory for others or signal a company’s shift into a new vertical altogether.
But let’s zoom out even further.

Sometimes, real estate demand is born from entirely new industries—and those moments often follow technology breakthroughs or policy shifts. Consider:

• Electric vehicles and their supporting infrastructure: battery plants, charging stations, and parts distribution centers.
• Lithium-ion batteries, which require massive and specialized manufacturing space.
• Data centers, the digital backbones of our modern lives, quietly taking down millions of square feet with very specific utility and security requirements.

We’ve seen this before. The 1980s research and development boom created entire submarkets for tech, biotech, and medical device firms. Those buildings weren’t just shells—they were incubators for innovation.

Sometimes the spark comes from government regulation. Remember when the EPA mandated the elimination of Freon from air conditioning units? That one change sent shockwaves through the HVAC industry, creating demand for new service hubs, training facilities, and parts distribution warehouses. A political decision translated directly into square footage demand.
In short, demand drivers in commercial real estate are everywhere—you just have to know where to look.

The next wave of activity might not come from a lease expiration or a low interest rate. It might come from an emerging technology, a new federal incentive, or even a global conflict that reshapes the supply chain. Our job, as advisors, is to interpret the signals, anticipate the shifts, and help our clients position themselves ahead of the curve.

Because buildings may be stationary—but the forces behind them are always in motion.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
 

Friday, May 9, 2025

Seven Unconventional Ways to Source Your Next CRE Deal


I get this question a lot: “Where do you find your deals?”
 
The easy answer is everywhere. The real answer? Deals find me—because I’ve spent years putting myself in the path of opportunity. Yes, cold calls and referrals still work, but the best transactions of my career have come from places most brokers overlook.
 
So, in the spirit of helping you add a few more tools to your sourcing toolbox, here are seven unconventional—but highly effective—ways to find your next commercial real estate deal.
 
1. Cooperating Brokers
Wait… cooperate with the competition? You bet. Some of my biggest wins came from fellow brokers who brought me into a deal because they trusted me to get it done. Cooperation can extend your reach, reduce friction, and lead to repeat business—if you approach it with integrity and a long-game mindset. This business has a short memory for egos but a long one for fair dealing.
 
2. Social Media
LinkedIn isn’t just for job seekers. I’ve had decision-makers reach out directly after reading a post I wrote that spoke to their pain point. One recent industrial tenant prospect came from a short post I published about navigating rising lease rates in the Inland Empire. The key? Don’t sell. Share insights. Be useful. The right people will notice.
 
3. Strategic Networking
Not all networking is created equal. Swapping business cards at a crowded mixer rarely leads to real relationships. I’m talking about high-trust, targeted networking—alumni boards, civic groups, niche masterminds. Years ago, I joined a local CEO roundtable—not to get business, but to give value. Guess what? A few of those CEOs are now clients.
 
4. Speaking Engagements
Public speaking has been one of the most unexpectedly lucrative parts of my career. Whether it’s a chamber event, a CRE panel, or a real estate summit, standing behind a mic positions you as an authority. One audience member asked a question during Q&A that led to a tour, then a proposal, and ultimately a closed deal. The lesson: don’t underestimate the power of putting yourself out there.
 
5. Blogging
I’ve kept a weekly blog going for over a decade. It’s never been about flashy graphics or keyword tricks—it’s about consistency and insight. Many prospects tell me they feel like they know me before we ever speak. One client read my blog for six months before reaching out. When we finally talked, it was like we were old friends. That kind of trust accelerates the sales cycle.
 
6. Industry Organizations
Want to surround yourself with serious players? Join serious organizations. SIOR has been a game-changer in my career. But here’s the catch—you have to participate. Don’t just add the designation to your email signature. Attend the meetings. Join a committee. Moderate a panel. Deals often arise not because you showed up, but because you showed leadership.
 
7. Writing a Newspaper Column
This month marks my 10th year as a contributing columnist for this paper. What started as a way to give back to the industry has become one of my most powerful branding tools. It’s built credibility, opened doors, and—yes—produced deals. People I’ve never met feel like they know me because they’ve read my thoughts every Sunday for years. That kind of visibility is priceless.
 
Wrapping it Up
If your only deal-sourcing method is pounding the phones, you’re missing out. Today’s opportunities are as much about pull as they are push. The more value you give—publicly, consistently, and authentically—the more likely deals will find you.
 
Pick one of these seven and put it into play. You don’t need to try them all at once. Just start. Because the best deal of your year might come from the place you least expect.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
 

Friday, May 2, 2025

Before You Pursue That Deal, QUALIFY It First


In commercial real estate, not every opportunity is created equal. Some sparkle at first glance but fade with time. Others seem ordinary but blossom into career-defining deals. After decades in this business, I’ve learned that success often comes down to asking the right questions before diving in.
 
That’s why I developed the QUALIFY framework.
 
QUALIFY is an acronym — a checklist, really — designed to evaluate whether a prospect or assignment is worth your time and effort. It stands for: Quantitative Need, Urgency, Authority, Loyalty, Intent, Fuel, and Yearning. Let’s take a quick look at each piece:
Quantitative Need: Is there a real, measurable requirement? A client who says, “I’m looking for space,” isn’t enough. How much space? When? Where? Why?
Urgency: Is there a compelling timeline? Deals without deadlines often drift. Urgency adds gravity.
Authority: Are you dealing with the true decision-maker? Chasing opportunities through multiple layers of approval rarely ends well.
Loyalty: Is the client committed to working with you exclusively, or are you one of many brokers they’re contacting?
Intent: Is the client serious about transacting, or are they simply “testing the waters”?
Fuel: Do they have the financial resources to complete the deal? No amount of motivation can overcome a lack of funding.
Yearning: Finally, is there emotional motivation? A client who needs to move, grow, or solve a pressing problem will push through obstacles.
 
Years ago, I was approached by a business looking for a large industrial building. On the surface, it seemed like the perfect assignment. But as I ran through QUALIFY, warning signs appeared: vague needs, no urgency, and no clear decision-maker. I politely stepped back. That “opportunity” dragged other brokers through months of wasted effort.
 
On the other hand, a small but highly motivated manufacturer came along shortly after. They checked every QUALIFY box — and we closed their lease within 45 days. It became one of the smoothest and most rewarding transactions of my career.
 
The lesson? In business — and in life — our most precious resource isn’t money. It’s time. We owe it to ourselves to invest our time wisely.
 
Before you chase the next shiny opportunity, take a moment to QUALIFY it first. Your future self will thank you.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.

Friday, April 18, 2025

Will Blend-and-Extend Lease Strategies Make a Comeback in 2025?


In the aftermath of the pandemic, industrial lease negotiations entered uncharted territory. But unlike the Great Recession, this period saw a 
surge—not a collapse—in rental rates, particularly in Class A logistics warehouses throughout Southern California. Rents doubled, in some cases even tripled, driven by soaring demand, constrained supply, and e-commerce acceleration. 
 
That upward trajectory has since leveled off, and we’re now seeing a return to more normalized leasing conditions. However, rental rates have not yet subsided to pre-pandemic levels. 
 
Many in the industry expect downward pressure to continue throughout 2025, especially in markets with rising vacancy and macroeconomic uncertainty.
 
As this shift unfolds, landlords and tenants alike are revisiting an old but effective strategy: the blend and extend.
 
For those unfamiliar, a blend and extend is a lease modification that resets the rental rate—usually blending the remaining term’s rate with a new, often lower rate—in exchange for an extension of the lease term. It’s a win-win, in theory: tenants secure near-term relief, and landlords gain longer-term income stability.
 
During the early 2010s, this strategy was a go-to for owners and occupants after the Great Recession. But in recent years, it fell out of favor as rising market rents and tight industrial vacancy rates made lease concessions less necessary. 
 
Now, with shifting market dynamics—especially here in Southern California—the blend and extend may be poised for a comeback.
 
Here’s what makes this moment unique:
                            Tariff uncertainty is rattling supply chains. Many importers and logistics companies operating near the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are reevaluating their long-term space needs in the face of potential cost increases. Locking in a lower rent through a blend-and-extend gives them breathing room while global trade policies shake out.
                            Tenants are more cost-conscious than ever, and many are considering downsizing or relocating. A landlord who offers a reasonable blend-and-extend may retain a tenant who otherwise might leave.
                            Landlords face longer lease-up times, particularly in softening sectors like class A logistics space. Extending a current tenant—even at a major discount—may be preferable to enduring months of vacancy.
                            Lenders like stability. A longer lease term improves the property’s valuation and supports refinancing conversations.
 
However, not all spaces or situations qualify. Blend and extends work best when:
                            The tenant is stable and has a solid track record of payment.
                            The current rent is above market or nearing expiration.
                            The landlord wants to avoid the risk (and cost) of vacancy and re-tenanting.
 
Owners and occupants alike should revisit lease portfolios and look for opportunities where both sides might benefit. In 2025, creativity and collaboration will again be the keys to unlocking deals—and the blend and extend might just be the versatile tool needed.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
 

Friday, April 11, 2025

What The Masters Can Teach Us About Commercial Real Estate


Every April, like clockwork, golf fans across the globe tune in to The Masters. From the blooming azaleas to the hushed reverence of Augusta National, it’s a tournament steeped in tradition and excellence. But beyond the pageantry and prestige lies a masterclass in preparation, strategy, and mental fortitude—qualities that resonate far beyond the fairway.
 
As I watched the tournament unfold this year, I was struck by how many parallels exist between The Masters and the world of commercial real estate. Whether you’re chasing birdies or escrows, there are lessons to be learned.
 
1. Preparation Wins Tournaments—and Deals
The grounds at Augusta are groomed with year-round precision for one magical week in April. Nothing is left to chance. In commercial real estate, preparation is no less important. Before a property ever hits the market or a buyer steps onto a site, there’s a mountain of research, underwriting, and planning that must be done. Deals go sideways when we cut corners—successful ones are built on the bedrock of preparation.
 
2. Strategy Over Strength
Sure, power off the tee is exciting. But it’s how a golfer manages the course—choosing shots wisely, knowing when to lay up, and navigating hazards—that determines the scorecard. The same is true in our business. Chasing every deal, every lead, and every shiny object is a recipe for burnout. Smart brokers know how to assess risk and reward, focus on the opportunities with the greatest potential, and let go of the ones that don’t fit.
 
3. The Short Game Seals the Win
Drives might get the crowd roaring, but tournaments are won with putts and chips. In commercial real estate, our short game shows up in the details: lease language, escrow instructions, title exceptions, and timelines. Deals don’t fall apart over asking price—they fall apart because of overlooked details and poor follow-through. Mastering the short game means fewer surprises and smoother closings.
 
4. It’s All in Your Head
Golf is as much mental as it is physical. Just ask any pro who’s blown a Sunday lead. The same goes for us. When a buyer backs out, a building fails inspection, or a deal dies in committee, we have two choices: spiral or steady ourselves. Longevity in this business favors those who stay calm, adapt, and keep moving.
 
5. Legacy Matters
At Augusta, legacy is everything. Champions are immortalized, and respect for the game runs deep. In commercial real estate, our reputation is our calling card. Over time, how we treat clients, competitors, and colleagues becomes part of our own professional legacy. It’s not about one big win—it’s about consistency, character, and how you play the long game.
 
So while most of us won’t slip on a green jacket anytime soon, we can still learn from those who do. The Masters reminds us that excellence is never accidental. It’s earned—through discipline, patience, and the relentless pursuit of better. In golf, in real estate, and in life.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
 

Friday, April 4, 2025

What the Commercial Real Estate Industry Can Learn from Tesla


Our aging vehicles finally cried “uncle.” And as someone with Scottish roots and a frugal mindset, I’ve always approached car buying with a specific formula: find a certified used vehicle, pay cash, and drive it until the wheels practically fall off. That method has served us well over the years with a low cost-per-mile—but lately, the repair bills started stacking up. It was time for a change.
 
What followed was a multi-week odyssey of AutoTrader scrolling, dealership visits, and spirited discussions with my wife over the best powertrain option—gas, hybrid, or electric. Due to a shortage of the car I originally wanted, we found ourselves walking into a Tesla showroom.
 
Fast forward to today: we are officially Tesla owners. And while I could fill a separate column with thoughts about the vehicle itself, I was struck by how much the Tesla experience mirrors trends—and opportunities—within commercial real estate. Let me explain:
 
1. The Search Mirrors Site Selection
Car shopping is not unlike the process tenants and buyers go through when sourcing new locations. There’s a checklist of needs, emotional and financial considerations, and ultimately, the choice that best aligns with priorities. The more intuitive and guided that search is, the better the experience.
 
2. Tesla Has Reimagined the Buying Process
Gone are the cubicles, the “let me talk to my manager” routines, and the hours-long negotiations. Tesla has engineered a customer journey that’s seamless—from the online order to the app-based updates to the five-minute pickup process. What if commercial real estate transactions were just as frictionless?
 
3. CRE Meets EV: Repurposed Real Estate
Many Tesla delivery centers and showrooms are in repurposed buildings—former big-box stores, warehouses, or auto dealerships. These adaptive reuses demonstrate that outdated space can be reimagined in bold, relevant ways. This is a huge lesson for property owners with obsolete inventory.
 
4. Tech as a Differentiator
From the test drive to the paperwork, everything is tech-forward. Not just modern—elevated. In CRE, we’re seeing the same trend: clients expect more digital tools, faster response times, and transparency. Firms that embrace smart tech—not just as a bolt-on, but as part of the DNA—will win.
 
The future of commercial real estate isn’t just about location—it’s about experience, adaptability, and efficiency. Just like Tesla rethought how we buy cars, maybe it’s time we rethought how we lease, sell, and manage properties.
 
Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.