Work Out Loud

In a land far away but not so long ago, my wife encouraged me to “work out loud.” A foreign concept at first, but brilliant in its simplicity.
 
You see, in 2009, Carla was introduced to social media marketing while earning an advanced degree in apparel manufacturing from the Fashion Institute of Design & Merchandising, better known as FIDM. Her advice was prescient. Take what I do in commercial real estate brokerage every day, the work, and digitize it, the out loud.
 
The Location Advice blog was born shortly thereafter, and 17 years later, it’s still published every week. Here, I provide advice to owners and occupants of industrial real estate throughout Southern California.
 
What started as an experiment became a habit. That habit became a body of work. And somewhere along the way, working out loud became one of the most important business development lessons of my career.
 
So, what exactly does it mean to work out loud?
 
Simply put, don’t invent content. Document your work.
 
Commercial real estate brokers spend their days solving problems. We tour buildings, negotiate leases, advise owners, analyze alternatives, track market activity, uncover opportunities and occasionally talk clients off the proverbial ledge.
 
Each encounter contains a story.
 
Years ago, the challenge was finding a way to tell those stories. Today, the challenge is choosing among the countless ways to do so.
 
A blog was my starting point. Then came LinkedIn, YouTube and other social platforms. In August 2013, I recorded my first TUESDAY Traffic Tips video. The premise was ridiculously simple. I was already driving to work, so why not use those few minutes to discuss something I had encountered in my brokerage practice?
 
Once again, the work became the content.
 
Now artificial intelligence has added another dimension.
 
I can take notes from a client meeting and organize the important themes. I can research a topic I encountered during the day. I can analyze a complicated issue from several angles. I can turn an idea into an outline, challenge my assumptions and identify questions I haven’t considered.
 
But there is an important distinction.
 
AI can help me create content. It cannot give me 42 years of experiences from which to draw.
 
That distinction matters.
 
Spend five minutes scrolling through LinkedIn and you’ll encounter plenty of content that sounds polished but says very little. Artificial intelligence has made producing words incredibly easy. Producing something worth reading remains difficult.
 
Which brings me back to Carla’s advice.
 
Work first. Out loud second.
 
If you own a manufacturing company, perhaps you just wrestled with whether to renew your lease or buy a building. There’s a story there.
 
If you operate a logistics company, maybe rising rents forced you to reconsider your distribution network. There’s a story there.
 
If you own an industrial building and your tenant suddenly announced plans to leave, you learned something about leasing, timing and risk. There’s a story there too.
 
The most compelling content generally comes from experience, not imagination.
 
Certainly, confidentiality matters. I don’t identify clients or disclose information that should remain private. But the lessons surrounding a transaction can often be shared without revealing the parties involved.
 
What happened? What did we learn? What might another owner or occupant do differently?
 
Answer those three questions and you probably have something useful to say.
 
There is another benefit to working out loud that I didn’t appreciate in 2009.
 
You create a digital record of your expertise.
 
One blog becomes 10. Ten become 100. A weekly column becomes hundreds. A short video recorded every Tuesday becomes years of conversations about your craft.
 
Individually, none seems particularly significant. Collectively, they tell the market what you know, how you think and whom you help.
 
And now, with artificial intelligence able to search, organize and repurpose that body of work, those years of accumulated knowledge become even more valuable.
 
The technology will continue to change. Blogs gave way to social media. Video became ubiquitous. Podcasts exploded. Artificial intelligence arrived. Something else will surely follow.
 
But I suspect Carla’s advice will survive all of them.
 
Do good work.
 
Pay attention to what the work teaches you.
 
Then work out loud.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
  

US Cities

I’m penning this column from one of our great U.S. cities, Chicago, Illinois. The scale of the downtown area is overwhelming. Massive skyscrapers rise from the banks of the Chicago River as it meanders toward Lake Michigan. The El bangs along rickety tracks in its endless loop around downtown. Of all the major metropolitan areas in our country, Chicago may be the most impressive.
 
Later today, I’ll address the Lee & Associates Chicago office. My topic is The SEQUENCE AI, derived from my book, The SEQUENCE, with a bit of artificial intelligence magic spun in.
 
But on to the topic of today.
 
As I walked Chicago this weekend, I was struck not simply by its size, but by its resilience. This is a city built around transportation, commerce and real estate. Yet the way each of those functions today bears little resemblance to the city that produced many of the magnificent buildings surrounding me.
 
Which caused me to wonder. What makes a piece of commercial real estate endure?
 
Is it the building, the location, the infrastructure surrounding it, or simply our willingness to imagine a different use when the old one no longer works?
 
Commercial real estate is littered with buildings constructed perfectly for yesterday.
 
Chicago provides plenty of examples. The city grew because of its strategic location, first as a connection between the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River system, then as a railroad hub linking eastern markets with the rapidly developing West. Commerce followed the transportation, people followed the commerce and real estate followed the people.
 
Sound familiar?
 
Southern California developed differently, but the fundamentals are remarkably similar. Our ports, freeways, airports, population and enormous consumer base created one of the largest industrial markets in the country. Manufacturers, distributors and logistics companies needed places to make, store and move things, and an industrial real estate market grew around them.
 
But markets change.
 
Manufacturing processes become more sophisticated. Distribution becomes more automated. Companies require more power, greater clear heights, better loading and fewer employees per square foot. Buildings that were state of the art 40 years ago can suddenly find themselves functionally obsolete.
 
Office buildings face an even greater challenge. Remote and hybrid work have changed the amount and type of office space many companies require. A magnificent downtown tower can still occupy a great corner, offer spectacular views and sit adjacent to tremendous infrastructure, yet struggle because the original assumptions upon which it was built have changed.
 
So what happens next?
 
Some buildings will continue doing exactly what they were designed to do. Others will be renovated and repositioned. Some may find entirely new uses, while others will eventually disappear and give way to something the original developer never contemplated.
 
We see the same thing happening in Orange County.
 
Older manufacturing buildings are being occupied by advanced manufacturers whose products their original occupants could scarcely have imagined. Corporate campuses are being reconsidered. Industrial buildings are being modernized. Office owners are wrestling with what their properties should become if traditional office demand never fully returns.
 
Which brings me back to Chicago.
 
Great cities endure because they adapt. The river that once moved raw materials now carries architectural tour boats beneath skyscrapers. Elevated trains designed in another century still rumble above streets filled with people carrying smartphones and ordering rides from apps. Buildings constructed for yesterday remain valuable because the infrastructure, location and human activity surrounding them continue to matter.
 
Therein lies the lesson for commercial real estate owners.
 
We tend to think of a building as a permanent asset, but its usefulness is anything but permanent. Markets change, technology changes, companies change and the way people work changes.
 
The dirt, however, remains.
 
And sometimes the greatest value in a piece of commercial real estate isn’t what it is today, but what someone can imagine it becoming tomorrow.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
 

What to expect for the balance of 2026

Summer 2026 is over. As the last tent was collapsed at the International Street Fair over the weekend, fall signaled its return, albeit with high temperatures, humidity and a bit of rain. Hurricanes in the Pacific will do that, but I digress.
 
Other than Christmas decorations in our local home improvement stores, what can we expect in our industrial real estate market for the final months of 2026?
 
Allow me to forecast.
 
Vacancy will remain elevated, but the worst may be behind us.

Depending upon whose statistics you follow, Orange County industrial vacancy ended the second quarter somewhere in the mid-5% to upper-6% range. One major brokerage firm pegged vacancy at 5.5%, its highest level in 20 years. Other surveys calculate it somewhat differently.
More important than the precise number is the direction.
 
After several years of companies shedding excess space, leases expiring and newly constructed buildings searching for occupants, we are beginning to see signs of stabilization. Industry reports show positive absorption for the third consecutive quarter in Q2.
 
I expect that trend to continue through year-end. Vacancy may bounce around, but I don’t anticipate another dramatic increase.
 
Lease rates will find a floor.

Average asking rents have fallen considerably from their late-2023 peak. Recent market reports place average asking rents around $1.49 per square foot, triple net, compared with $1.80 at the peak. Other surveys place the current average slightly lower at $1.46.
 
That correction was necessary.

For several years, occupants renewing leases faced enormous increases. Today, they have choices. Landlords are competing again, concessions have returned and tenants willing to commit can negotiate.
 
My prediction? Asking rates remain relatively flat through the balance of 2026, but effective rents, after free rent and tenant improvements are considered, will continue to favor occupants.
 
Large buildings will continue to struggle more than small ones.

This is really several industrial markets masquerading as one.
 
Recent market data indicates that buildings between 5,000 and 10,000 square feet had vacancy below 2% in the second quarter. Buildings between 100,000 and 250,000 square feet had vacancy exceeding 14%.
 
That is an enormous difference.

Small owner-user buildings remain scarce. Large distribution facilities have considerably more competition. Expect that disparity to continue.
 
Construction will virtually disappear.

Only a fraction of the industrial space that was under construction a couple of years ago remains in the pipeline. Recent market reports counted just 676,000 square feet underway at midyear, down almost 66% from a year earlier.
 
With land prices, construction costs, interest rates and existing availability where they are, speculative development is difficult to justify.

That lack of new construction will eventually matter. Demand doesn’t have to explode for vacancy to tighten when very little new inventory is being added.
 
Owner-user sales will remain frustrated by financing.

Here is the wildcard.

Companies still want to own their buildings. Many simply dislike the monthly payment created by today’s borrowing costs. Meanwhile, owners who bought years ago at much lower prices and interest rates have little incentive to sell.
 
Consequently, good owner-user buildings should continue to command attention, but transactions will take longer and buyers will scrutinize pricing more carefully.
 
The Federal Reserve provides little clarity. Policymakers enter their September meeting divided over whether rates should remain unchanged or move higher, with inflation data likely determining the outcome. 
 
Finally, 2027 decisions will begin early.

This may be the biggest story of the fourth quarter.
 
Companies with leases expiring in 2027 and 2028 should be evaluating alternatives now. For the first time in several years, occupants have leverage. Waiting until 90 days before expiration wastes it.
 
So, my forecast for the balance of 2026?

More balance. More negotiation. Fewer cranes. Motivated landlords. Selective buyers. And considerably more opportunity for occupants willing to make decisions before everyone else does.
 
Oh, and Christmas decorations appearing sometime after Labor Day.
 
Apparently, some forecasts are easier than others.

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
 

Client services

On occasion, one of our clients outgrows its local facility, expands into another part of the country, or needs real estate advice in a market beyond our expertise.
When that happens, our role changes.

Rather than simply referring the client to a broker in another city and hoping for the best, we employ what I call a client services approach. It includes the traditional brokerage functions of identifying alternatives, touring properties, negotiating terms and completing a transaction, but adds another layer: analysis, accountability and strategy.

Think of us as the quarterback.

We remain responsible for understanding the business requirement, helping establish the real estate strategy, identifying and engaging the right local professionals, keeping everyone accountable, comparing alternatives on a consistent basis and making certain the recommendations support the client’s larger business objectives.

Over the years, I’ve found these assignments generally begin in one of three ways.
A client has outgrown its existing operation and needs more space. A company is expanding geographically and entering a market it doesn’t know. Or an existing location somewhere outside our home market reaches a decision point: renew, relocate, expand, contract, buy or perhaps exit altogether.
In each case, our process begins before we look at a single building.

Understand the requirement
What is driving the assignment? Growth? Labor? Customers? Transportation? Cost? An acquisition? A lease expiration?

Square footage is important, but it is rarely the entire story. We want to understand headcount, equipment, power requirements, loading, clear height, yard requirements, employee commute patterns, customer proximity and the timing of the decision.

More importantly, we ask what the new location must accomplish for the business.

Build the strategy
Once we understand the requirement, we can determine where the search should occur and what alternatives should be considered.

Sometimes the answer is obvious. Frequently, it isn’t.

Should the company lease or buy? Should it expand its existing operation or open another? Is the preferred market really the best market? How do occupancy costs, labor availability, taxes, incentives and transportation compare among several locations?

This is where analysis becomes particularly important.

Assemble the local team
Commercial real estate remains remarkably local.
A broker who works a market every day understands ownership personalities, upcoming vacancies, off-market opportunities, municipal issues and nuances that someone parachuting into town simply won’t know.

Our job isn’t to pretend we possess that knowledge. It is to find the professionals who do.
We identify and vet local brokers and, when necessary, attorneys, architects, contractors, economic-development officials and other specialists. The client gets local expertise while retaining a single point of strategic accountability.

Create accountability
Here is where the client services model differs most from a simple referral.
We stay involved.

We establish the process, timetable and deliverables. Alternatives are compared using the same criteria. Proposals are analyzed consistently. Calls are scheduled. Responsibilities are assigned. Deadlines are tracked.

Someone owns the process from beginning to end.

Execute the transaction
Eventually, all that strategy and analysis must produce a result.

A building is selected. Economics are negotiated. Due diligence is completed. Documents are finalized. The company moves in.

Those are familiar brokerage functions. But by the time we reach them, much of the important work has already occurred.

Years ago, I believed our value as commercial real estate brokers was largely measured by how well we knew our local market.

I still believe local knowledge is enormously valuable.

But when clients grow beyond our geography, our responsibility grows with them. Our value becomes less about knowing every available building and more about knowing how to build the right strategy, assemble the right team, analyze the choices and hold the process accountable.

Sometimes the best way to serve a client isn’t to have all the answers.

It’s to make certain the right questions are asked, the right experts are engaged and someone remains responsible for getting the client where it needs to go.
 
Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
 

Tetons

I’m penning this from our deck overlooking the Teton mountain range in Jackson, Wyoming. You see, wanderlust 2026 continues.

After busying ourselves with fly fishing on the Snake River, rafting, horseback riding, and touring Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks, there hasn’t been much time for reflection.
But this area is a fascinating case study in what can happen when public purpose and private enterprise work together.

Much has been written about the negative consequences when government and private business join hands on a project. And for good reason. Taxpayers can assume the risk while private interests reap the rewards. Political influence can replace market discipline.

But the Tetons offer another side of that story.

One of the best examples dates to the 1920s.

John D. Rockefeller Jr. visited the area and became concerned that commercial development would permanently alter the landscape surrounding the Teton range. Through the Snake River Land Company, Rockefeller quietly began acquiring ranches and other private holdings with the intention of ultimately preserving the land.

Over time, approximately 35,000 acres were assembled and eventually donated to the federal government, helping form a significant portion of what became the expanded Grand Teton National Park.

Think about that.

Private capital acquired fragmented parcels from willing sellers. Government ultimately became the steward. The public received the lasting benefit.

It wasn’t without controversy. Local ranchers, politicians and others opposed federal control, and the process took years. But more than a century later, the result is difficult to argue with as you stare across this extraordinary landscape.

The same public-private relationship continues today in a different form.

Government protects the resource and establishes the rules. But much of the visitor experience is provided by private enterprise.

Our fly-fishing guide doesn’t work for the federal government. Neither do many of the people taking visitors rafting, horseback riding or sightseeing. Lodges, outfitters, restaurants, retailers and transportation companies provide services to millions of visitors drawn here by a publicly protected resource.

There are guardrails, however.

Private businesses aren’t free to develop the Tetons however they please. There are permits, environmental protections and restrictions on use.

And perhaps that is the lesson.

Successful public-private partnerships shouldn’t ask government to become a business or business to become government. Each should do what it does best.

Government can protect resources, establish standards, provide infrastructure and take the long view.
Private enterprise can provide capital, innovation, competition, efficiency and customer service.
Commercial real estate offers plenty of parallels. We see public-private cooperation in redevelopment districts, infrastructure improvements, brownfield remediation, transportation projects and adaptive reuse.

Some work beautifully. Others become expensive cautionary tales.

The difference often comes down to structure. Who bears the risk? Who receives the benefit? Are incentives aligned? Is there transparency and accountability? Most importantly, does the public investment create a broader public benefit?

Looking across the Tetons, I’m reminded that public-private partnerships aren’t inherently good or bad.

They’re tools.

Used poorly, they can distort markets and waste taxpayer dollars. Used properly, with clearly defined roles and the right guardrails, they can accomplish something neither side could accomplish alone.
John D. Rockefeller Jr. saw something here worth preserving.
Private capital helped secure it. Public stewardship protected it.

A century later, we’re still enjoying the return on that investment.
 
Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
  

What Would Our Industrial Market Look Like Without Anduril?

I have watched, with interest, the evolution of a company in Orange County: Anduril.
 
If you are unfamiliar with the name, you are not alone. They have quietly become one of the true industrial market movers.
 
With a growing footprint in Santa Ana, Costa Mesa and Irvine, a massive campus under construction near Long Beach Airport, and a huge bet on Columbus, Ohio, the company has single-handedly changed our Class A vacancy picture.
 
Factor in all of the supporting companies that provide component parts to Anduril, and you have the industrial demand drivers we have been missing for the past four years.
 
So, how would our industrial market be different without Anduril, I wondered?
 
Bear with me as I reason this with you.
 
First, take away the space.
 
That alone would matter. Anduril has absorbed, and is continuing to absorb, a substantial amount of industrial and flex space in Orange County and beyond. Remove that demand from the equation and the vacancy picture changes immediately. Buildings that are occupied today would still be sitting on the market. Buildings that are under construction would have a much harder time finding their next user. And some of the newer Class A product that has benefited from this demand would be facing a much softer leasing environment.
 
But that is only part of the story.
 
The bigger issue is what I would call industrial gravity.
 
When a company like Anduril grows, it does not grow alone. It creates a pull. Suppliers follow. Contractors follow. Specialized service firms follow. Engineers, fabricators, technology vendors and support companies begin to cluster around the core business. One company’s expansion becomes a broader ecosystem of demand.
 
That matters because industrial real estate does not just respond to one user. It responds to the network around that user.
 
Without Anduril, much of that network would either not exist here or would be significantly smaller. The knock-on effect would be felt in leasing, in absorption, in new development and in overall market confidence.
 
And that is really the key word: confidence.
 
For the past four years, industrial brokers, landlords and developers have been asking the same question in different forms: where is the next real demand?
 
We have had plenty of macro stories. E-commerce was huge. Logistics remained active. Some reshoring took place. Port-related activity continued to support the region. But the market still needed a fresh, meaningful demand driver, something beyond the usual suspects.
 
Anduril has become that driver.
 
What makes the company especially interesting is that it is not simply a traditional industrial user. It sits at the intersection of advanced manufacturing, defense technology, engineering and software. That combination is important because it fits Southern California better than many people might assume. We have the talent. We have the aerospace and manufacturing heritage. We have the suppliers. We have the universities. We have the ports. We have the infrastructure.
 
In other words, we have the ingredients for this kind of company to thrive.
 
If Anduril had been founded somewhere else, the industrial market here would almost certainly look different. Vacancy would be a higher. Leasing velocity would be a slower. Some of the supporting companies that now orbit around Anduril might be located in another state. And perhaps most importantly, we would have one less example of a major growth company choosing Southern California for advanced manufacturing.
 
That matters.
 
Because one company like this can have a multiplier effect that is far greater than the square footage it occupies. One large requirement can lead to many smaller ones. One anchor tenant can create a reason for others to follow. One expanding company can help establish the credibility of an entire submarket.
 
So when I ask myself what our industrial market would look like without Anduril, the answer is simple: weaker.
 
Not broken. Not empty. But weaker.
 
And in a market where every bit of demand matters, that difference is significant.
 
Anduril has not solved every challenge in Southern California industrial real estate. No single company can. But it has helped fill a gap that we have been missing for some time. It has brought real absorption, real construction, real supporting demand and real optimism to the market.
 
That is not a small thing.
 
Sometimes the most important companies in a market are not the loudest ones. They are the ones quietly changing the numbers, changing the conversation and changing what people believe is possible.
 
Anduril has done exactly that.
 
Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.
 
 

The Unintended Consequences of Writing a Book

When I published The SEQUENCE a year ago, I thought I knew what would happen.

 I hoped a few commercial real estate professionals would buy the book, find value in it, and perhaps improve their careers. I expected it to generate a conversation or two, maybe even a speaking engagement.

What I didn’t expect were the unintended consequences.

Writing a book has very little to do with selling books. Instead, it accelerated my credibility.

Fellow brokers no longer asked, “How long have you been in the business?” They simply assumed I had something worth saying. Conference organizers began calling. Podcast invitations appeared in my inbox. Brokers from across the country contacted me. Not to discuss a transaction, but to discuss a concept. 

The book opened doors that years of production alone never had. 

More surprising was what it did for me. 

Writing forces clarity. You cannot hide behind vague ideas when they’re staring back at you from a blank page. Every principle had to survive the question: “Would I stake my reputation on this?” If the answer wasn’t yes, it didn’t make the manuscript. 

The result wasn’t just a better book. It was a better framework for how I train new professionals, mentor younger brokers, and even evaluate my own decisions. 

Then came the biggest surprise. 

The book wasn’t the destination. It was the foundation. 

It has evolved into training programs, keynote presentations, workshops, interviews, articles, and conversations I never could have imagined when I typed the first chapter. Ideas that once lived only in my head now have a life of their own. 

That’s the funny thing about creating something meaningful. You think you’re producing a product. In reality, you’re building a platform. 

Whether you’re in commercial real estate, law, accounting, architecture, or any profession built on expertise, don’t underestimate the value of capturing what you’ve learned. It doesn’t have to be a book. It could be a series of articles, a newsletter, a podcast, or a class. 

The act of organizing your knowledge changes you. Sharing it changes how others see you. 

The unintended consequence isn’t that people begin viewing you as an expert. 

It’s that you finally become intentional about the expertise you’ve been building all along. 

Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.