What Would Our Industrial Market Look Like Without Anduril?

I have watched, with interest, the evolution of a company in Orange County: Anduril.
 
If you are unfamiliar with the name, you are not alone. They have quietly become one of the true industrial market movers.
 
With a growing footprint in Santa Ana, Costa Mesa and Irvine, a massive campus under construction near Long Beach Airport, and a huge bet on Columbus, Ohio, the company has single-handedly changed our Class A vacancy picture.
 
Factor in all of the supporting companies that provide component parts to Anduril, and you have the industrial demand drivers we have been missing for the past four years.
 
So, how would our industrial market be different without Anduril, I wondered?
 
Bear with me as I reason this with you.
 
First, take away the space.
 
That alone would matter. Anduril has absorbed, and is continuing to absorb, a substantial amount of industrial and flex space in Orange County and beyond. Remove that demand from the equation and the vacancy picture changes immediately. Buildings that are occupied today would still be sitting on the market. Buildings that are under construction would have a much harder time finding their next user. And some of the newer Class A product that has benefited from this demand would be facing a much softer leasing environment.
 
But that is only part of the story.
 
The bigger issue is what I would call industrial gravity.
 
When a company like Anduril grows, it does not grow alone. It creates a pull. Suppliers follow. Contractors follow. Specialized service firms follow. Engineers, fabricators, technology vendors and support companies begin to cluster around the core business. One company’s expansion becomes a broader ecosystem of demand.
 
That matters because industrial real estate does not just respond to one user. It responds to the network around that user.
 
Without Anduril, much of that network would either not exist here or would be significantly smaller. The knock-on effect would be felt in leasing, in absorption, in new development and in overall market confidence.
 
And that is really the key word: confidence.
 
For the past four years, industrial brokers, landlords and developers have been asking the same question in different forms: where is the next real demand?
 
We have had plenty of macro stories. E-commerce was huge. Logistics remained active. Some reshoring took place. Port-related activity continued to support the region. But the market still needed a fresh, meaningful demand driver, something beyond the usual suspects.
 
Anduril has become that driver.
 
What makes the company especially interesting is that it is not simply a traditional industrial user. It sits at the intersection of advanced manufacturing, defense technology, engineering and software. That combination is important because it fits Southern California better than many people might assume. We have the talent. We have the aerospace and manufacturing heritage. We have the suppliers. We have the universities. We have the ports. We have the infrastructure.
 
In other words, we have the ingredients for this kind of company to thrive.
 
If Anduril had been founded somewhere else, the industrial market here would almost certainly look different. Vacancy would be a higher. Leasing velocity would be a slower. Some of the supporting companies that now orbit around Anduril might be located in another state. And perhaps most importantly, we would have one less example of a major growth company choosing Southern California for advanced manufacturing.
 
That matters.
 
Because one company like this can have a multiplier effect that is far greater than the square footage it occupies. One large requirement can lead to many smaller ones. One anchor tenant can create a reason for others to follow. One expanding company can help establish the credibility of an entire submarket.
 
So when I ask myself what our industrial market would look like without Anduril, the answer is simple: weaker.
 
Not broken. Not empty. But weaker.
 
And in a market where every bit of demand matters, that difference is significant.
 
Anduril has not solved every challenge in Southern California industrial real estate. No single company can. But it has helped fill a gap that we have been missing for some time. It has brought real absorption, real construction, real supporting demand and real optimism to the market.
 
That is not a small thing.
 
Sometimes the most important companies in a market are not the loudest ones. They are the ones quietly changing the numbers, changing the conversation and changing what people believe is possible.
 
Anduril has done exactly that.
 
Allen C. Buchanan, SIOR, is a principal with Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services in Orange. He can be reached at abuchanan@lee-associates.com or 714.564.7104. His website is allencbuchanan.blogspot.com.